[RE]fuel Market Report Commentary

Year 10 and Year 11 certificates were assessed unchanged on Friday at 15 p for Year 10 and 15.5 p for Year 11 as a familiar pattern held sway over RTFC prices.

Evidence of legislative progress on the proposed changes to the RTFO remained elusive, with sources at the Department for Transport maintaining the government line that it is on schedule to implement the changes ahead of the April deadline, despite the legislative vehicle – the statutory instrument – seemingly lost in the political process.

Alongside that, cold weather settled back over the UK which favoured blending fuels over certificate buying, denying much of the incentive for buying.

While that cocktail may normally spell downward pressure on RTFC prices, the defining feature of the week was the spectacular mini-collapse in crude and distillate prices, with low sulphur diesel prices in Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp losing 12% of their value in just two weeks.

As the underlying gasoil contract fell, so biodiesel premiums found headroom to recover, with RME premiums rising from around $275/mt over the front month ICE gasoil contract, to hit levels around $320/mt over the contract.

That saw the theoretical cap move up again, with the bid and offer range for both Year 10 and Year 11 certificates widening after it had narrowed to a relatively tight range in recent days.

Bids were heard in the range of between 14 p to 14.5 p, with offers backing off to around 16.5 p.