[RE]fuel Market Price Commentary

13 Apr 2018

The final week of the old RTFO arrangements saw a familiar issue affecting the UK’s arrangements, as geopolitics supported crude oil prices which filtered through into refined product prices – not least diesel, which saw sharp increases mid-week.

With the underlying oil price rallying, diesel prices reached their highest point of the year, compressing biodiesel premiums which slipped back into the range seen at the end of March, with FAME 0 back at levels around $180 over the front month ICE gasoil contract, and RME around $216/mt over.

That tightened the cap once again, leaving little room for upward momentum and shaving value from the Year 10 RTFC, which dropped 0.75 p to 12.25 p/certificate – in line with the fall seen on FAME 0 premiums on a pence/litre basis.

For Year 11, however, the imminence of the increased mandate and the ongoing concern regarding the availability of supply to meet the new requirement meant that sellers remained in short supply and values were wide apart in terms of bids and offers.

There were some reports of trading around 17 p/cerficate, a 0.75 pence increase on the previous week’s assessed values, and Energy Census assessed at that level.

Price Assessments 13 Apr 2018

p/cert. +/-
RTFC Year 11 17.00 +0.75
RTFC Year 10 12.25 -0.75
Spread to ULSD
Spread to ULSD
UCOME 977.00 339.00 21.04
FAME 0 817.00 179.00 11.11
RME 854.00 216.00 13.41
ULSD 638.00
USD/GBP 0.7014
RTFC-RHI spread (waste based biomethane)*
p/kWh p/litre
RTFC Year 10 0.49 1.86
* 3 pence/kWh RHI
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